What started, as an uprising of oppressed
population against an authoritarian regime soon became a multi-layer
international proxy-war; and it is going to get worse with the possibility of a
fresh weapon supply. This makes the upcoming G8 meet very crucial for more than
economic reasons, especially as the West is looking to press Russia on Syria.
What we see today in Syria is a conflation of a proxy war being fought out
at various levels; from an uprising it became an Iran versus Saudi Arabia
conflict, followed by Sunni versus Shia religious sectarian war with minorities
within the country such as Alawites and Christians against the radical Islamic
groups; and now this is turning out to indeed be the West versus Russia and
China.
While the West, for its part, is busy deciding between ideological arrangements to
create a ground for political judgment, by highlighting the “revolting nation”
and “oppressing regime” with over dramatization of the chemical gas discourse
to justify its military action, even if it is just a supply of weapons.
Selective as always, the West has been in accepting and dispersing information
to justify its actions, and has finally found the ground for intervention in Syria
on the alleged use of chemical gas by the Assad regime to kill 100-150 people;
in a conflict that has claimed, by latest UN numbers, 93,000 lives.
This ‘conclusive research’
of the intelligence agencies is not so conclusive, as per the Russians.
However, for the politics of convenience, we will ignore the atrocities
committed by the Syrian rebels, who all are among them, and the threat they
pose to the secular structure of Syria.
Many experts say that
Obama’s decision to arm the rebels is realpolitik, justifying that it is in the
interest of US to supply ‘just enough’ weapons to keep the two sides fighting.
The Assad regime is increasingly relying on Hezbollah and the rebels for their
part, are relying on Jihadist in the Middle East and Al Qaeda allies to fight
back. Now in some circles keeping two of the United States’ most active
terrorist enemies fighting each other might be seen as not such a bad strategy.
I believe that this is the
similar circle that once believed in creating Al Qaeda and the army of
Mujahidin in Afghanistan to fight against the Soviets in ’80s. It is the same
circle that exclusively understands the logic of fighting the Al Qaeda allies
in Mali and once these allies crosses the border and enters Syria; supply them with
arms and aid.
Adding to the global
adventure in Syria, the Muslim Brotherhood joined the wagon by allowing
Egyptian citizens to join the Rebels in the battle for the Sunni cause. Somehow
this again gives me the feeling of nostalgia of Soviet war in Afghanistan. Israel
with this whole chaos at its doorstep and with a genuine threat to its internal
security, unlike all the actors involved in the Syrian conflict, is, against
its own strategic culture, acting very sensible by resisting a direct participation.
Israel a couple of
weeks ago got a bit adventures and conducted airstrikes in the Syria, targeting
the arms shipment to the Hezbollah. However, soon after the airstrike the news
of S-300 Russian defense missile system started to make the headlines. Israel
realized the dynamics of the Syrian proxy-war and implication of direct involvement.
They know the price of getting involved in this conflict, and they will not, at
least until the price is truly worth paying. As Prime Minister Netanyahu said, "Israel
is not getting involved in the civil war in Syria, as long as the fire is not directed
at us.”
The Noble Peace prizewinner
EU, on the other hand, sabotaged the Russian initiated peace talks “Geneva 2”
by lifting the arms embargo in Syria, at the same time that the US and Russia
were trying hard to bring everyone on the negotiations table for a political
solution. With the changing dynamics of the war, and looking at the victories
of Assad regime with the help of the Hezbollah, now another Noble Peace
prizewinner, Obama, has joined the wagon to escalate the conflict by supplying
the weapons to the rebels and pushed peace way beyond the agenda. Now Geneva 2
should be forgotten for the recent future, or at least until a stalemate is
reached.
Either these Noble Peace prizewinners fail
to recognise, or prefer to ignore, that such a realpolitik approach could invite repercussions beyond Syria. Even
the warmongers like Rep. John McCain have accepted the fact that allowing the
war to continue could dangerously threaten the regional security by spilling
over into neighboring countries, like Jordan and Turkey. “This is a regional
conflict,” McCain said after his secret trip to Syria, “Jordan is
destabilized. Lebanon is about to erupt into sectarian violence.
Jihadists are flowing in from all over the Middle East”. As per my belief eruption
of a regional conflict in Middle East will eventually affect the global oil
market, and consequently all the economies dependent on Arab oil, including
some of the BRICS.
Now that the West has
started to open its cards in Syria, the ball is in the Russian court. How far
will Russia go to defend its interest in Syria? During the Russia-EU conference
earlier this month Putin had said, “On our side, I underline once again that any attempts to solve the
situation [in Syria] by force, by a direct foreign intervention are doomed to
fail and would inevitably lead to grave humanitarian consequences.”
The West’s decision to
supply arms to the rebels, and escalate the violence, could be a blunder of
historic proportions. In response, even if the Kremlin only honors its existing
defense agreements and contracts with the Assad regime, including S-300 defense
missile system, and has no direct military aid or fresh defense deals, we will
witness the disastrous conflict of our lifetime, which will subsume more than
just the Gulf region in it.
The fears are entirely
legitimate among analysts regarding the future of this conflict, and no matter
how the war ends; stability is a matter of the past. Regardless of who takes
the power, or whether the transition of power is smooth or riotous, the former
Syria as we knew no longer exists. The best the international community can do
is to make sure the conflict does not escalate to a position that the world
will regret. Therefore, we should all be looking forward to the upcoming G8
meeting and its impact on Syria.
