By requesting for
Russian asylum, Snowden has pulled up a chair at an on-going game of high
stakes Texas Hold 'Em between Putin and US. The ex-KGB (if there is such a
thing) seems to have the best card, but as we all know that the shrewdest bluff
often wins this nerve-wracking game... and the game is on… and they are now
locked in it, with a bundle on the table and cards yet to be
turned up. The NSA leaker has just placed his opening bet and now its Putin’s
turn to make a move.
The problem is, Snowden’s
hole cards are not that strong. The game now shifts to Putin's favor. Obama can
only watch. The wily former KGB operative has a number of ways to strip
Snowden, a former low-level NSA and CIA technician, of his chips. One could be
a double-cross. He can accept Snowden's asylum bid and then swap him for Victor
Bout, the Russian arms dealer languishing in a U.S. prison, who Moscow wants
back. However, if Putin makes this move, he might face a strong blow within his
home turf, where he won the so-called election by playing the nationalism card,
which at the end is an anti-American, anti-West sentiment. This is not an
assumption given that some 56 percent of respondents in an opinion poll
conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation said they backed Putin and did not
want Americans adopting Russian children. A denial to Snowden’s request, given
that he has accepted Putin’s only condition for the asylum may also make Putin appear
weak against the US. Again, not a very favorable option for him.
If he let Snowden stay
in Moscow, many analysts argue that it will jeopardize the bilateral
relationship between Moscow and Washington, with which Putin has been playing a
game of poker since sometime now, namely, banning of the adoption of Russian child
by Americans, keeping his support to the Assad regime and so on… This game is
not new between Putin and US; the game is on for a while with Capitol Hill
passing The Magnitsky Act, Kremlin banning the adoption of Russian babies
by American couples and then Moscow had imposed an entrance ban on 18 US
citizens who are alleged to have participated in torture practices in
Guantanamo prison, or who are said to have violated the rights of Russian
citizens in retaliation to the Washington’s list of, 18 Russian officials facing
penalties for alleged human rights violations, as American authorities can
freeze their bank accounts and ban the officials from entering the US.
The game got bigger, stakes
got higher and gorier in Syria, where both the players are bluffing over weapon
supply, while they showed genuine interest globally in organizing the peace
negotiation in Geneva. For an erstwhile diplomat the recent few months may have
been a cruel reminder of the Cold War, maybe this is now the version 2.0.
Putin in last five
years or so have raised Russia from the Soviet ashes, remarkably, exactly the same
time when the West was trying to write Moscow off from the global high
table of power. Putin has renewed the Russian influence on global politics all
over again and is emerging as the big brother in the BRICS bloc.
Snowden, who badly
gambled on a Hong Kong refuge, seems to be betting that a facedown card, the
outrage of much of the world should he be mistreated will turn up in his favor.
My sense is that if Putin allows Snowden to stay in Moscow, both Washington and
Moscow have a long history of compartmentalizing these kinds of issues when
you've got spies or … defectors and they can fence that off from the rest of
the relationship, eventually.
Given the power
politics now. Ironically, if you remember history well, with what end did
the Indian born British double agent Harold Adrian Russell "Kim"
Philby met by seeking his exile in the Soviet Union. He was doomed to live out
his life as a burnt-out shell in a dreary Moscow apartment, under the virtual
house arrest. No amount of alcohol and philandering could stifle his bile. Given
all the scenarios, Snowden's worst fate could be, Putin allowing him to stay in
Russia.
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